The George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted jointly by Democratic and Republican polling firms, finds that in a matchup of Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump, Hillary leads nationally by only 3%, with 11% undecided. The poll was conducted 4/17-4/20, has a protocol for reaching mobile phone users, and has a margin of error of 3.1%. In a Sanders-Trump matchup, Bernie leads by 11%, with 10% undecided.
Of the five candidates still in the race, only Bernie Sanders and John Kasich have approval ratings that are above 50%. Of the other three candidates, Cruz is viewed unfavorably by 55%, Hillary by 56%, and Trump by 65%. All the candidates with unfavorable ratings above 50 percent also have a majority of voters saying that they would not consider voting for them for president.
What worries me more than the possibility of Hillary losing to Trump (although I don’t think that’s as unlikely as many here seem to) is that with two candidates running against each other who are BOTH disliked by most voters, there could be record low turnout for a Presidential election year. And we know what low turnout does to down-ticket Democrats.